Sourdough rise forecast: how long will your sourdough take today?
Sourdough rise time depends mostly on temperature. This forecast reads the weather where you are, estimates your kitchen temperature and works out when your starter will peak and how long bulk fermentation and proofing should take today.
Using a typical 72°F (22°C) kitchen
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At 72°F (22°C)
EstimateStarter peak if you feed now
| Feed | Time to peak | Peaks around |
|---|---|---|
| 1:1:1 | 4–6 h | — |
| 1:2:2 | 4¾–7¼ h | — |
| 1:5:5 | 7¼–10¾ h | — |
Bulk fermentation
| Levain | Bulk time | If you mix now |
|---|---|---|
| 10% of flour | 6¼–9½ h | — |
| 20% of flour | 4¾–7 h | — |
| 30% of flour | 3¾–5½ h | — |
End bulk at a 50–75% rise, not on the clock.
Final proof
- Room temperature
- 1¾–2¾ h
- Cold retard (fridge)
- 12–16 h
works from 8 to 48 h at 37–41°F (3–5°C)
Full guide for this temperature: proofing sourdough at 72°F · all temperatures
Want to bake at a certain time?
Pick when the loaf goes in the oven. The planner works backwards with a 1:2:2 feed and 20% levain at the kitchen temperature above.
At 72°F (22°C): feed your starter 1:2:2, mix about 6 h later when it peaks, shape about 5¾ h after mixing, then give the loaf 14 h in the fridge and bake.
More control (feed ratio, levain %, fridge hours, presets for a 9-to-5 day)? Use the sourdough timeline & schedule calculator.
Weather data by MET Norway (CC BY 4.0). Your location is used for this forecast only and is never stored.
Watch the dough, not the clock
Starter at its peak
- Roughly doubled (or more) since the feed
- Domed top, just before it flattens
- Bubbly all the way through, pleasantly tangy
Bulk fermentation done
- Risen about 50–75% in volume
- Jiggly when you shake the container, domed edges
- Bubbles on the sides and top, airy and light
Final proof: the poke test
- Springs back fast: needs more time
- Springs back slowly, small dent stays: bake
- Dent stays and the dough sighs: over-proofed, bake now
How these estimates work
Temperature is the main driver. Sourdough is a living culture, and as a rule of thumb it works about 2× faster for every 9°C (16°F) warmer, and half as fast for every 9°C cooler. That's why the same recipe can take 4 hours in July and 9 in January.
Starter peak: a healthy starter fed 1:1:1 peaks in about 5 hours at 72°F (22°C), 1:2:2 in about 6
and 1:5:5 in about 9. In numbers: (4 + n) × 2^((22 − °C) ÷ 9) hours for a 1:n:n feed, kept between 3 and
14 hours on the counter. In the fridge, expect 1–5 days.
Bulk fermentation: a dough with 20% levain at about 75% hydration takes about 5 hours at 75°F
(24°C) to rise 50–75%: 5 × 2^((24 − °C) ÷ 9) hours. Less levain is slower (10% ≈ ×1.35, 15% ≈ ×1.15),
more is faster (30% ≈ ×0.8). The final proof at room temperature takes about 0.4 × the bulk time;
a cold retard in the fridge (3–5°C / 37–41°F) works anywhere from 8 to 48 hours, best 12–16.
Kitchen temperature: indoors follows the weather only loosely, so the forecast starts from 21 + 0.2 × (outdoor °C − 15), kept between 17 and 27°C (63–81°F). A 35°C (95°F) afternoon gives
an estimated 25°C (77°F) kitchen; a 0°C (32°F) day gives 18°C (64°F). Heating and air conditioning change
this a lot, so set the slider to your thermometer if you have one.
Every number is shown as a range (±20%), never an exact time, because starter strength, flour and hydration vary from kitchen to kitchen. It's the same model the Boulie app starts from, and the app then learns your starter's actual rhythm from your feeds and rise checks.
Frequently asked questions
How long will my sourdough take to rise today?
It depends mostly on your kitchen temperature. At 72°F (22°C), a starter fed 1:2:2 peaks in about 4¾–7¼ hours, bulk fermentation with 20% levain takes about 4¾–7 hours and a final proof about 1¾–2¾ hours. The forecast above recalculates these for today's temperature where you are.
How is my kitchen temperature estimated?
From the current outdoor temperature where you are, using a deliberately gentle rule: 21 + 0.2 × (outdoor °C − 15), kept between 17 and 27°C (63–81°F). Homes are heated and cooled, so indoor temperature moves far less than the weather. If you have a thermometer, set the slider to its reading.
Why does temperature change sourdough rise time so much?
Yeast and bacteria work faster when they're warmer. As a rule of thumb, fermentation runs about twice as fast for every 9°C (16°F) warmer, so the same dough can take 4 hours on a summer afternoon and 8 or more on a winter evening.
Is this forecast accurate for my starter?
It's an estimate for a healthy, established starter and a dough at about 75% hydration, shown as a ±20% range. Young starters, stiff starters, whole-grain flours and different levain amounts all shift the timing, so confirm with the visual cues: a doubled, domed starter, a dough risen 50–75%, and the poke test.
Does this page store my location?
No. Your approximate location comes from your network connection and is only used to look up the weather for this page view; nothing is logged or stored. "Use my precise location" asks your browser for permission and sends rounded coordinates the same way.